9-1 WEEKEND FOR Unit Betting System
2011 GREEN SHEET:
Green Sheet Key Selections had another winning issue going 7-4-1,
though we missed our NCAA Rating 5 on a backdoor cover. Overall
college picks were 29-17 last week for 63 percent to continue a strong start
to the season for the newsletter. We had our second straight Rating 5 push
in the NFL but pro Keys are now 6-2-2 for the season.
September has been a month of huge profits for our phone service the last
six years and we made good on that word last weekend, going 9-1
Thursday to Sunday. Our 3* College Top Play won in a 44-7 blowout with
slight favorite Ohio and we swept the board in the NFL going 3-0 with three
underdogs that all won outright. We are a perfect 5-0-1 in NFL phone picks
this season and college picks rebounded from a lukewarm start with a
huge 6-1 weekend including a 4-1 Saturday. Those that took advantage of
our discount weekend package were treated to big results last week. Try
us out for a full weekend Thursday-Monday for just $60 or consider our
October package for $219 – getting six weeks of picks! We expect to have
another 3* Top Play in college football this week for $35 and our weekly
NFL 2/3 is always available for $25. The Computer Slam had a blowout
win last week and is now 2-1 on the season as well.
We rank our Key Selections in order of preference, grading them on a scale of 1 to 5 with 5 being a top selection. This does not mean we recommend you wager 5 times more on a 5 rating
than on a 1 rating. Our Phone Service works that way, but not the newsletter. Lines listed are as of early in the week and could be considerably different by game time. For games that are not
key selections, the farther our difference from the line, the stronger the opinion.
Between the Lines…
Each week in the newsletter we will provide a brief column with interesting notes and insights on the
previous and future weeks in this Between the Lines column.
Over the last 30 years teams that start 0-2 are very unlikely to make the NFL
playoffs, doing so around 14 percent of the time. The Giants did win a Super Bowl after a 0-2
start a few years ago but that was the exception and not the norm. Last week a few NFC
contenders had great rallies to avoid the dreaded 0-2 hole with Tampa Bay, Dallas, and
Atlanta delivering late wins to get to 1-1. One team in the Monday night game between the
Rams and the Giants will go 0-2 and effectively be eliminated. Minnesota, Carolina, and
Seattle are already there in the NFC. In the AFC Miami, Indianapolis, and Kansas City are
staring at uphill battles despite two of those teams being in the playoffs last season.
The struggles from the Chiefs may be a surprise to some but the reports from
camp were ugly this summer and the schedule is daunting. We feel quite good about our
recommendation of taking the Chiefs ‘UNDER 7.5’ wins before the season started even though
they were a 10-6 team last season. The AFC East is loaded with three 2-0 teams leaving
Miami in a very tough position. If a team has a chance to still make a playoff run from 0-2 the
Dolphins might be worth a look as they have faced two elite contenders in the first two weeks,
but the schedule won’t be a whole lot easier. The Bills and the Redskins appear to be the most
glaring phony 2-0 teams although both teams should be on track for substantial improvement
from last season. Detroit and Houston are the two up-and-coming teams that have a bit more
to prove before being placed in that upper echelon but both are dangerous.
Dallas survived last week and America’s team was dangerously close to 0-2,
looking at a very tough schedule ahead. The Cowboys have an improved Washington team
this week and then the red hot Lions. The first game after a week 5 bye is against New
England, so while Dallas fans can relax this week this team could still be in line for another
disappointing year especially with the injuries that are adding up.
Rookie QBs have been impressive so far with Cam Newton being the headline on
every list despite still being winless. Newton has had back-to-back 400 yard passing games to
start the season, briefly holding the NFL record in the first two weeks before Tom Brady
eclipsed it. Andy Dalton quietly played extremely well in a loss and he looks like he can lead
the Bengals to a respectable season despite dire preseason predictions. Blaine Gabbert
appears likely to get his first shot at starting this week as the Jaguars QB play was horrendous
behind Luke McCown last week.
Statistical oddities of the first two weeks: Miami has allowed the most yards in the
NFL after being a top ten defense last year. New England and Green Bay, two of the Super
Bowl favorites are second and third worst in the league in yards allowed. Houston has allowed
the fewest yards through two weeks after being third worst in the NFL last season. The
schedule has a lot to do with the numbers in a small sample but Patriots and Packers fans
have to be a little bit worried, although the games will be entertaining.
Conference season is here for many colleges this week although the conference
shake-ups appear to be headed towards a lot of action in the coming weeks. Huge opening
conference games in the Big XII, Pac-12, and SEC will go a long way to shaping the season
this Saturday. There are a few big undefeated showdowns led by Arkansas/Alabama,
LSU/West Virginia, North Carolina/Georgia Tech, and Oklahoma State/Texas A&M, as well as
a few surprises with Vanderbilt/South Carolina and Nebraska/Wyoming also featuring match-
ups between 3-0 squads. In the Heisman race favorites Andrew Luck and Kellen Moore
appear to still be in the driver’s seat. Moore’s team has a much better chance to be undefeated
which will help the cause although Stanford has impressed through three weeks, including two
blowout road wins for a team in transition. The gap after the top two looks steep at this point
but keep in mind last year Denard Robinson was the overwhelming early season favorite. He is
in the mix again this year for now. Close to home for us is a case building for Russell Wilson
who has been sensational, albeit vs. a light schedule. Best of Luck, on to this week’s slate…
rved. Nelly’s Sportsline is a registered trademark.
COLLEGE KEY SELECTIONS
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RATING 5 TEXAS TECH (-20½) over Nevada
RATING 4 KANSAS STATE (+13) over Miami, FL
RATING 3 SOUTH CAROLINA (-15½) over Vanderbilt
RATING 2 SYRACUSE (-3) over Toledo
RATING 2 CENTRAL MICHIGAN (+24) over Michigan St
RATING 1 CALIFORNIA (+3) over Washington
RATING 1 MARYLAND (-9) over Temple
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ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, all lines are obviously subject to change
THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 22, 2011
CINCINNATI (-7½) NC State
While Russell Wilson is making headlines in Madison, his replacement Mike
Glennon has efficient numbers through three games for NC State with over
64 percent completions and only one interception. NC State is 2-1 but both
wins came rather unimpressively against FCS teams. Cincinnati bounced
back from its first loss with a blowout win over Akron but the huge statistics
for the Bearcats have come against questionable competition in two of three
games. Last season NC State won 30-19 in Raleigh with nearly 500 yards of
offense but going on the road will be a challenge. Cincinnati allowed huge
passing numbers to Tennessee so the Bearcats will be tough to trust in a
favored role and NC State should be in position to win. NC STATE BY 4
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 23, 2011
BYU (-3) Central Florida
The first season for BYU as an independent has had a rough start with a 1-2
record and last week’s embarrassing rivalry game loss to Utah will be tough
to come back from. It was a tight game early but Utah poured on the points to
an eventual 54-10 final. BYU was a bit burnt out from a near upset at Texas
the previous week and last week’s result was plagued by seven turnovers
among other costly mistakes. Central Florida was also upset last week, as
surprising Florida International held off the Knights. Central Florida made
some mistakes early and could not recover. UCF is an outstanding defensive
team and last week’s loss came in a tough spot, sandwiched in between two
more prominent match-ups. BYU is a much better team than last week’s
score looked but after losing in back-to-back big games the Cougars will be
tough to trust in the favorite role. CENTRAL FLORIDA BY 3
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 24, 2011
OHIO STATE (-14½) Colorado
The Buckeyes had a miserable showing in Miami with barely 200 yards of
offense and only six points. Getting through a pair of MAC teams in the
transition year with a depleted roster is one thing but the schedule the next
few weeks is very difficult for Ohio State. Colorado is 1-2 on the season but
they have faced a high quality schedule. The Buffaloes got a big win last
week in the state rivalry match-up with Colorado State as RB Rodney
Stewart had a big game. QB Tyler Hanson has completed just 55 percent of
his passes but he has seven touchdown throws and only one interception
and the QB situation for Ohio State is less than ideal. Ohio State still owns
outstanding defensive numbers but Miami rushed for 240 yards playing with
an early lead last week. Ohio State has the talent to take care of business at
home in this game for a bounce back win. OSU BY 17
DUKE (-10½) Tulane
Duke got into the win column last week, scoring the only points of the second
half against Boston College for a 1-point win. Duke has posted strong
yardage totals this season through a challenging schedule but the scoring
has not been there. Tulane delivered one of the more surprising results of the
weekend with a 49-10 win at UAB, as double-digit underdogs. The game was
not close as the Wave posted 540- yards and held the Blazers to less than
200 yards. Tulane has an excellent QB with Ryan Griffin and the defense has
made strides in recent years. Tulane caught some breaks last week and
Duke should be the superior team in this match-up but laying points with the
Blue Devils is always a treacherous proposition. DUKE BY 6
SYRACUSE (-3) Toledo
Toledo has poured a lot into the last two games, giving Ohio State a real run
two weeks ago and then hanging capably most of the way with Boise State in
a primetime home game last week. The schedule softens a bit for the
Rockets but this is still a tricky game on the road with a much more important
MAC opener with Temple next week. After a 2-0 start the Orange could not
keep pace at USC although the yardage differential was not as substantial as
the final score. Syracuse has historically held a very difficult home field at the
Carrier Dome and while Toledo is good enough to be threat for the upset in
this game the situation is problematic for the Rockets and Syracuse will likely
come out on top off its first loss. SYRACUSE BY 14
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EAST CAROLINA (NL) Uab
The Blazers have a veteran squad and really looked like a team that could be
in contention in the East division of Conference USA this season. Through
two games it is hard to believe any of the optimism, as UAB is 0-2 with ugly
numbers and injuries may create further woes. Losing badly to Florida is one
thing but last week at home the Blazers lost by 39 against Tulane. East
Carolina has had two weeks to prepare for this game and the Pirates should
be ready after winning a shootout last year. The Pirates are 0-2 but they
have faced highly ranked major conference teams and in both games ECU
was within striking distance. The Pirates have shown great ability on offense
and the defense held its own against Virginia Tech and could improve on the
horrendous numbers from last season. UAB is not as bad as it has looked
but this should be a better situation for the Pirates. EAST CAROLINA BY 17
SOUTH FLORIDA (-28) Utep
South Florida posted 70 points last week and the 3-0 start has been
impressive. The Bulls should have big advantages in this match-up but a
much bigger game to open the Big East season is on deck. UTEP has two
wins, holding on against New Mexico State last week. It has not been a
difficult schedule and the Miners have not been statistically impressive but
they found a way to win with their back-up QB last week, though completing
just 35 percent of passes. Following up a rivalry game and facing a third
straight road game with long travel is a tough situation for UTEP and while
South Florida may be reaching its valuation apex, this is not the spot to fade
a team that has proven it can post big numbers. SOUTH FLORIDA BY 34
ILLINOIS (-13½) Western Michigan
Illinois had very little production last week but the defense held up in key
spots to preserve a narrow win and this is a team that is good enough to
make some noise in the Big Ten. A bigger game to open the conference
season is up next making this perhaps a challenging game and Western
Michigan is one of the better teams in the MAC. The Broncos played a close
statistical game with Michigan in the opener but were burned by turnovers
and never got the chance for a comeback bid with the weather shortened
game. Last week against a key rival Western Michigan absolutely pounded
Central Michigan and this is an experienced team that will seek an upset in
the next two weeks with games against major conference teams. Look for a
solid effort from an underdog with momentum. ILLINOIS BY 10
RUTGERS (-4) Ohio
The Bobcats were dominant last week in a revenge game against a nearby
rival, also catching Marshall in a difficult scheduling spot. Ohio is 3-0 and
while this is an opportunity to take a shot at a beatable major conference
team, the focus is on the MAC title and a there is a big conference match-up
next week. Rutgers has split its first two games and has had two weeks to
get on track for this match-up following a tough loss at North Carolina in
week 2. Ohio has delivered great results on the road under Coach Solich but
this looks like a less than ideal spot on the schedule and Rutgers may
surprise with an impressive win coming off the bye. RUTGERS BY 14
PENN STATE (-28) Eastern Michigan
Temple gave Penn State a very tough game last week but the Nittany Lions
were in a tough follow-up game following the hyped game with Alabama.
Penn State has great defensive numbers and the offense should be in
position for its best game. Eastern Michigan has made a commitment to the
run this season, averaging almost 290 yards per game and good rushing
teams are always dangerous underdogs. Penn State will have by miles the
best defense that the Eagles have faced in three games however so that
production could halt. This will be a big game for Penn State to make a
statement after scoring 25 points combined the last two weeks. Eastern
Michigan has a winnable game next week at home and facing a second
consecutive game on the road will be a challenge. PENN STATE BY 35
MIAMI, FL (-13) Kansas State
After an embarrassing opener against an FCS foe where Kansas State
needed to win the final seconds, the Wildcats had a dominant effort last week
in a 37-0 win against a Kent State that team that is expected to be
respectable in the MAC this year. After a heartbreaking opener Miami got
some redemption last week with a big win over Ohio State and the defense
was tremendous. Kansas State is often an overlooked team in the Big XII but
this has been a consistently solid program and the recent record as an
underdog is impressive. Miami could be in a letdown spot this week and
Miami’s offense may still be turnover prone. Value could be with an
underrated Wildcats team that will compete well. MIAMI BY 3
Smu (-22½) MEMPHIS
Memphis got its first win last week to avoid getting placed on the 0-12 watch
list. The Tigers have a very tough path and should struggle much of the
season but against FCS competition last week the offense was able to take
charge. SMU took care of business in a similar light match-up last week and
after a tough opening game the Mustangs have a bit of momentum going
with QB J.J. McDermott who started the season as a back-up. This is the
homecoming for the Tigers and SMU does not have a great track record on
the road. This is not an attractive wagering match-up as SMU is not a
trustworthy road favorite and backing Memphis takes courage. SMU BY 24
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MARYLAND (-9) Temple
At first glance Temple might look like an attractive underdog here. The Owls
nearly beat Penn State at home last week and Maryland has not been overly
impressive. Maryland was fortunate to beat Miami in the opener and trailed
West Virginia badly last week before a late rally made the final close.
Maryland just has FCS Towson on deck so they will put a lot into this game
and the Terrapins have been an effective offensive team so far this season
against quality teams. Temple has a huge MAC game with Toledo next week
and that will be a more important game, coupled with the letdown spot makes
this a problematic situation. Temple will have a hard time matching Maryland
in a shootout as the Terps should score points. MARYLAND BY 21
MICHIGAN STATE (-24) Central Michigan
Notre Dame seemingly tried to give the Spartans chances to make a
comeback bid but after falling behind early Michigan State was out of its
game plan and suffered its first loss. Michigan State only lost once in the
regular season last year and it may be tough to bounce back from that hyped
game, especially with Ohio State next on the schedule. Central Michigan was
blown out by its rival Western Michigan last week and it should serve as a
wake-up call. The Chippewas are rebuilding but they but they hung with
Kentucky two weeks ago and beat Michigan State two years ago in a major
upset. This is a third straight road game for Central Michigan but the travel
has not been significant and Michigan State has been unreliable as a big
favorite and could be caught looking ahead. MICHIGAN STATE BY 13
Georgia (-10½) MISSISSIPPI
After a 0-2 start it was important for Georgia to build some confidence last
week and FCS Coastal Carolina was victimized in a 59-0 rout. Mississippi fell
to 1-2 last week, losing badly at Vanderbilt QB play has been a big issue as
QB Zack Stoudt has five interceptions and only two touchdowns and in three
games the Rebels have passed for just over 400 yards. Mississippi has a lot
of experience on offense but managing just seven points against Vanderbilt a
week after struggling against FCS Southern Illinois indicates some serious
issues. Georgia had to play two elite teams in the first two weeks and last
week’s game should help the morale significantly as the Bulldogs are still in
play in what should be a wide open SEC East. Ole Miss does not seem to
have the weapons to exploit a suspect Georgia defense and an undervalued
Bulldogs team should have a big day on offense. GEORGIA BY 21
MIAMI, OH (-6) Bowling Green
This could be a tough opening MAC game for Miami as the Redhawks nearly
had an upset last week at Minnesota. Bowling Green lost at home to
Wyoming as their own comeback bid fell just short. The Falcons out-gained
Wyoming by over 100 yards but had six turnovers that were obviously costly
in a one-point loss. Bowling Green has had an odd home/road dichotomy in
recent years with far better results on the road and after a narrow defeat in
this series last week this will be a big game for the Falcons. Miami is the
defending MAC champion and a contender this season but the Redhawks
are not a team that is designed to produce blowouts and a Bowling Green
offense that can score quickly is an upset threat. MIAMI BY 3
Army (-3) BALL STATE
Army has faced a tough schedule and last week they got a big win over
Northwestern to avoid a 0-3 start. The competition drops in quality from here
on out and Army could be a play-on team in many spots down the road as
this looks like a team that can return to the bowl picture even with the 1-2
record. Ball State held on to win last week against Buffalo as they
surrendered an early lead in the fourth quarter but then scored in the last 30
seconds to get the win. Ball State beat Indiana in the opening game and this
is a team that will be very competitive in the MAC. The next three games are
brutal so this will be a critical game and the somewhat flat effort last week
may have been a look-ahead result. Army is tough to fade with a strong
running game but value has turned off the big win. BALL STATE BY 3
Virginia Tech (-19) MARSHALL
Marshall is a team that can look dramatically different at home than on the
road. The Herd suffered an ugly blowout loss last week but after two big
opening games it was a difficult scenario. In its last home game Marshall
beat a Southern Miss team that is expected to contend in Conference USA
and there will be no lack of motivation against a marquee opponent. Virginia
Tech has strong numbers as road favorites but at East Carolina two weeks
ago proved to be a challenging game. With a big game against Clemson up
next this game could lead to another lackluster performance as last week the
Hokies were not overly impressive in a 26-7 win. VIRGINIA TECH BY 17
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ALABAMA (-12) Arkansas
This showdown between 3-0 teams will set an early tone in the SEC West,
likely the best division in the nation. Alabama won 24-20 last season in a
game that featured identical yardage for both teams. The Crimson Tide
trailed 20-7 before furious rally and Alabama got several big interceptions.
Alabama’s defense has allowed just 18 points in three games but the offense
has shown its youth, with four interceptions and only two passing
touchdowns. Arkansas is somewhat untested as last week’s 10-point win
over Troy was by far the most difficult opponent in the non-conference slate.
Arkansas won at Georgia last season after a similar start but inexperienced
QB Tyler Wilson will face a big challenge for his first road game. Arkansas
may be a bit undervalued in his match-up and the Razorbacks have shown
the ability to score. The Arkansas defense is at a huge disadvantage but
Alabama has not proven it is at full capacity on offense yet and this will be
the first SEC test for sophomore QB A.J. McCarron. ALABAMA BY 10
WASHINGTON (-3) California
Posting over 400 yards against Nebraska is impressive in any circumstance
but Washington got most of its points after the game was seemingly out of
reach. The Huskies have been tested with a very tough schedule so far and it
may be tough to bounce back after a big game last week. Washington upset
California 16-13 late in the year last season with a bowl game on the line so
this is a big game for the Bears. California was impressive in its opener but
then was fortunate to beat Colorado before bouncing back last week in a
blowout against FCS Presbyterian. Washington is getting much better QB
play but California could be an underdog with big rushing totals as
Washington allowed over 300 rushing yards last week. CALIFORNIA BY 7
Lsu (-6) WEST VIRGINIA
LSU picked up another big win last week, led by its defense. The Tigers look
like a serious national title contender but this is another difficult non-
conference test. Last season LSU won 20-14 at home against the
Mountaineers in a defensive battle as the teams combined for just over 400
yards. West Virginia is also 3-0 but they have been a bit of a Jekyll and Hyde
team with stretches of dominance and stretches of struggle. QB Geno Smith
has very strong numbers with over 1,000 yards passing in three games but
surprisingly the Mountaineers have not run the ball well this season. That will
likely remain true this week as LSU has allowed just 47 yards per game on
the ground despite facing Oregon and Mississippi State, two of the better
rushing teams in the nation with mobile QBs. Looking to this game may
explain some of the inconsistency for West Virginia but LSU is a tough team
to fade, even in a second straight tough road game. LSU BY 10
MICHIGAN (-8½) San Diego State
This is a unique game with Michigan Coach Brady Hoke coaching San Diego
State the past two seasons. Michigan is 3-0 this season but the Wolverines
started 5-0 last season before a major collapse and there has been reason to
worry with pretty marginal statistics this season, especially on defense. San
Diego State is also 3-0, showing an ability to win close games the last two
weeks. The Aztecs gave up big numbers to Army but held on for the win and
pulled away late against an improved Washington State team last week.
West Coast San Diego State will be forced to play an early start game after
long travel so this is a tough spot but the players and coaching staff will be
eager for this match-up while Michigan has the Big Ten opener looming. San
Diego State is not as strong as last season but they catch nice underdog
status against an overrated Michigan team this week. MICHIGAN BY 7
GEORGIA TECH (-6) North Carolina
ACC football does not get a ton of national coverage but this is a game to
check out and will likely be a key game in the Coastal Standings. Both teams
are 3-0 and last week Georgia Tech posted 768 yards including over 600
rushing yards. This was against a major conference team as well but this
week the Yellow Jackets face a very stingy run defense against a stacked
North Carolina front seven. North Carolina is also 3-0 but the Tar Heels will
be playing its first road game of the year with a young QB that has had some
turnover issues despite completing over 80 percent of his passes. Georgia
Tech rushed for 372 yards in this match-up last year so they are more than
capable of another big day but this will the best defense faced so far this
season and both offenses could struggle in a grind. GEORGIA TECH BY 3
Florida (-18) KENTUCKY
The Gators were expected to struggle a bit this season in transition with a
challenging schedule but so far so good in the Will Muschamp/Charlie Weis
era with a 3-0 start. Last week was the first serious test with the Gators
winning by ten at home against Tennessee and the game was not really that
close. This will be the first road game for Florida but Kentucky has not
presented much of challenge in the recent years of this series. Alabama is
next on the schedule however so looking ahead is a risk. Kentucky is 2-1 but
the Wildcats have been out-gained in all three games and easily could be 0-
3. The statistics are ugly, averaging less than 20 points per game and while
the defense has great statistics the competition has not featured the threats
that Florida will have on offense. Kentucky has been a competitive home
team in recent years but the gap between these two teams appears too
severe to fade Florida in a somewhat difficult situation. FLORIDA BY 24
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Notre Dame (-6½) PITTSBURGH
Pittsburgh suffered a depressing loss last week as they led Iowa substantially
in the fourth quarter before a turnover induced collapse. The Panthers were
not impressive in the game but sloppy Iowa play helped the Panthers get in
position for a big road win. Pittsburgh has been vulnerable on defense this
season despite facing marginal competition and Notre Dame finally broke out
with a big win last week. The Irish have posted huge numbers on offense this
season but turnovers have been a serious issue. The Irish easily could be 3-
0 through a very difficult schedule however and the recent road numbers are
favorable. Pittsburgh appears to still be overvalued and all early signs point
to the Panthers struggling more than anticipated in the transition season. If
Notre Dame hangs on to the ball they should win. NOTRE DAME BY 13
Florida State (-3) CLEMSON
Clemson ended Auburn’s long winning streak with an impressive second half
last week and quietly at 3-0 the Tigers could emerge climbing the rankings if
they can win against this week. Clemson has had great recent success in
this series and Florida State is in a tough situation after suffering a tough loss
in a season-making game last week against Oklahoma. That was a national
title or bust type game and while the Seminoles played tough they fell short
and also lost their QB to injury. E.J. Manuel is a question mark at this point,
leaving some potential problems going against a good defense. Clemson has
poor defensive numbers to date but this should be one of the better defenses
in the ACC and the Tigers will be tough to beat at home. CLEMSON BY 7
SAN JOSE STATE (NL) New Mexico State
New Mexico State lost in a tight game versus rival UTEP last week and they
may have lost QB Andrew Manley who is questionable this week. The Aggies
won at Minnesota earlier this year and after ugly numbers the past two
seasons this looks like a greatly improved program. San Jose State is 0-3 but
has been competitive despite being heavy dogs in all three games. The
yardage was actually quite close in the blowout loss to Stanford and losing
by ten to UCLA and by three to Nevada is an encouraging sign of progress
for a team that was 1-12 last season. After allowing 464 yards per game last
season the Spartans have allowed just 387 yards per game this season and
the schedule will get easier from here on out. Look for the Spartans to play
well at home in this match-up as the Aggies are in a tough spot off a
disappointing home loss and may be without its QB. SJSU BY 4
Fresno State College Football Odds (-5½) IDAHO
The Bulldogs were a bit flat last week in beating North Dakota just 27-22 but
that game came on the heels of two big-time match-ups in the first two
weeks. Fresno State has been a consistent contender in the WAC the last
decade and with Boise State out of the picture there may be an opportunity
for a title season. Last season Fresno State won just 23-20 against Idaho at
home and the Bulldogs have been inconsistent in recent seasons. Idaho
covered last week against Texas A&M but the Vandals were not in the game
and this line could be impacted by Idaho beating North Dakota handily in a
common opponent match-up. The situations were vastly different and Fresno
State should be the superior team in this match-up. FRESNO STATE BY 10
Connecticut (-10) BUFFALO
The Huskies have suffered back-to-back tough down-to-the-wire losses at
home the last two weeks but this is a team that started a disappointing 1-2
last season and ended up in the Fiesta Bowl. Buffalo appeared to be in line
for a tough season but the Bulls have been competitive in both losses and
may be able to compete in the MAC this season. Last season Connecticut
won 45-21 in this match-up but the Bulls have the rare opportunity to host a
major conference team in this game. Buffalo is 3-0 ATS this season while
Connecticut is the opposite, sticking with those trends makes sense given
the potential fragile emotional state for the Huskies. CONNECTICUT BY 7
OREGON STATE (-3) Ucla
These former Pac-10 powers are struggling in year one of the Pac-12. UCLA
is 1-2 but the win came unimpressively and last week’s home loss to Texas
got ugly. Oregon State has been plagued by injuries but losing to a FCS
school is inexcusable and the Beavers did not compete well at Wisconsin.
Oregon State has had two weeks to heal and prepare for the conference
opener which certainly should be an advantage as UCLA faces a tough road
game while facing great scrutiny. UCLA has covered in seven of the last
eight meetings between these schools including a 17-14 win last season.
The defensive statistics can be thrown out as both teams have faced elite
offenses already this season and while UCLA has issues the Bruins are
healthy and capable of getting back on track. UCLA BY 3
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5:00 PM
2:30 PM
TEXAS TECH (-20½) Nevada
This would have been an entertaining offensive show last season but
Nevada does not appear to be at a level anywhere near the great scoring
potential of last year’s team. Not much can be taken from two lopsided Texas
Tech wins against marginal competition, the Red Raiders have scored 109
points with big numbers but they may not hold up in the Big XII season. The
Red Raiders have been convincing favorites in recent years and Nevada has
historically been a vastly different team away from home. This is a third
consecutive game on the road for Nevada to start the season and Boise
State is up next so it will not be getting any easier. Nevada is a threat to be a
big underdog with a rushing edge but look for Texas Tech to pour on the
points this week as Nevada will command attention. TEXAS TECH BY 35
SOUTH CAROLINA (-15½) Vanderbilt
Even through a challenging schedule it is not much of a surprise that South
Carolina is 3-0 and on top of the SEC East. Vanderbilt matching the
Gamecocks is a bit unexpected. All three games for the Commodores have
been at home and while wins over Connecticut and Mississippi are nice
stepping stones, they are not in the same ballpark as this match-up.
Vanderbilt played respectably against South Carolina last season in a 21-7
defeat but the yardage was at a nearly 2:1 differential. South Carolina has
had ATS success in this series but glimpsing ahead to a game with Auburn
next week could be a possibility. The Gamecocks have posted big numbers
on offense including 242 rushing yards per game but the defense has been
vulnerable, allowing 4.8 yards per rush. Vanderbilt has a veteran team and
with 99 points in three games they scored almost half as many points as they
did all last season. After a flat effort last week South Carolina can certainly
play better and Vandy could be exposed. SOUTH CAROLINA BY 24
MISSISSIPPI STATE (-18) Louisiana Tech
Both teams enter this game coming off depressing losses. Mississippi State
had its big chance for a national splash but came up short against LSU, a
week after a very tough loss to Auburn. Louisiana Tech surrendered a late
lead in a one-point loss to Houston. Louisiana Tech is 1-2 but while they
needed overtime to beat Central Arkansas they played very tight with two
Conference-USA contenders. Mississippi State has Georgia up next so this
will be a tough game to focus on. Louisiana Tech has not performed well
away from home in recent years but they will be up for this match-up.
Louisiana Tech can run the ball effectively so they can be a dangerous
underdog and Mississippi State has not been as strong on defense through
three games as most expected this year. MISSISSIPPI STATE BY 14
BAYLOR (-18½) Rice
Baylor and Rice are often forgotten teams in the Texas college football
landscape but both are off to strong starts. Baylor’s epic win over TCU will go
down as one of the great games of the season and the Bears cleaned up on
FCS Stephen F. Austin last week to move to 2-0. Rice played close with
Texas in defeat in the opener and then scored a nice win over Purdue. The
Owls have a veteran team and with two weeks to prepare for the explosive
Bears offense they should have a good game plan. Last season Rice lost 30-
13 at home so there will still be a substantial gap between the talent levels at
these programs. Baylor has the conference opener next week but Rice will
have a tough time keeping pace in a shootout on the road. BAYLOR BY 20
VIRGINIA (-3) Southern Miss
The Cavaliers posted big yardage last week against a good North Carolina
defense but came up short for their first loss of the season. This will be a
challenging game even though Southern Miss has not lived up to
expectations so far through three weeks. Both defenses have strong
numbers to this point, particularly against the run but it is likely that neither
unit will hold up that well as the schedule progresses. Virginia has a veteran
team and while a tough schedule is waiting in conference play the Cavaliers
look like a capable team that can contend for a bowl bid. In 2009 Southern
Miss won 37-34 at home against Virginia and in an indication of how far
Virginia has come, the Cavaliers were 14-point underdogs in that game.
Southern Miss does not have a great recent track record in the road
underdog role and so far the Golden Eagles have underperformed
expectations making them a risky team to back. VIRGINIA BY 7
TEXAS A&M (-3) Oklahoma State
This will be one of the biggest games of the season in the Big XII schedule
and this was a great game last season. Oklahoma State won 38-35 in
Stillwater last season even though the Aggies had a big yardage edge in the
game. Turnovers were costly for Texas A&M last season as they blew a
halftime lead. Both teams are off to perfect starts to the season and last
week’s games played out much more favorably for Texas A&M. The Aggies
cruised to a big early lead and was able to coast to a win while Oklahoma
State had an exhausting match with Tulsa. The game was delayed several
hours due to weather and started after midnight, and with 92 points in the
game it was a tough way to get a win. This will be a second straight road
game for the Cowboys and the Aggies appear to have a big edge in run
defense early in the year. Both teams can post big numbers but Texas A&M
should get more stops in this huge game while also mainly being dominant at
home the last two years. TEXAS A&M BY 6
6:00 PM
6:00 PM
6:00 PM
6:00 PM
2:30 PM
6:00 PM
Nebraska (-23) WYOMING
The Cornhuskers are 3-0 as the nation awaits the Big Ten debut next week
but there have been some concerns developing. The elite defense has
allowed 67 points and a lot of yards the past two weeks against average
teams. Nebraska has started slow in both games and in the Big Ten
schedule that may not work. With a huge road game next week this game
with Wyoming looks inconvenient but it will be good for the team to get a
road game under its belt. Nebraska is 0-3 ATS this season and while the
rushing offense can control games, Wyoming has rushed the ball very
successfully this season as well. Wyoming is also 3-0 but two wins were
against FCS schools. Winning at Bowling Green last week was somewhat
impressive but turnovers paved the way for the victory. Nebraska has not
been able to cover inflated favorite spreads in recent years and given the
mammoth game that is up next it is worth fading Nebraska in this road setting
even though Wyoming won’t live up to its current stats. NEBRASKA BY 21
OKLAHOMA (-21½) Missouri
Missouri beat Oklahoma last season and the Tigers will have a favorable set-
up again this season catching the Sooners off a huge win over Florida State.
This game is on the road however and Oklahoma has simply been dominant
at home in recent years, even facing inflated spreads. Missouri struggled in
its opener against Miami and then lost a tight game with Arizona State in
overtime on the road before plowing through Western Illinois last week. The
Tigers have a lot of experience but are missing some key players from last
season. Missouri had 744 yards last week so the offense got plenty of work
in but Oklahoma’s defense was really impressive last week, particularly
against the run. Oklahoma has played two formidable opponents while still
posting big numbers, living up to expectations that come with being the top
ranked team in the nation. Backing Missouri as an underdog is tempting but
the Oklahoma should not letdown in this situation in a revenge situation and
with a light game on the card next week. Look for Missouri to hang early but
the Sooners have too many edges. OKLAHOMA BY 24
UTAH STATE (-6½) Colorado State
The season started very promising for Utah State, nearly upsetting Auburn in
the opener and avoiding a letdown with a blowout win over Weber State the
following week. The Aggies have had two weeks to prep for this game and
this should be a bad situation for Colorado State as they are coming off a
tough loss against key rival Colorado. This is a third away game in four
weeks for the Rams and the team struggled on the road against a New
Mexico team that has been hammered the last two weeks. This is the
homecoming game for Utah State and even though BYU is up next this will
be a key game for the Aggies. Utah State should have edges on offense in
this game and Colorado State defense is not good enough to carry the team
on the road. Look for the Aggies to finish this game. UTAH STATE BY 13
BOISE STATE (NL) Tulsa
They may not think so now, but Tulsa brutal non-conference schedule should
pay dividends in the conference season as the Golden Hurricanes will be
among the favorites. Tulsa has been hammered by Oklahoma and Oklahoma
State already this season including last week’s twilight affair and injuries are
mounting. This is the third road game in four weeks, a brutal challenge as
Boise State remains one of the nation’s elite teams. In 2009 Tulsa lost by just
seven against the eventual 14-0 Broncos but in the home opener Boise State
will be tough to go against. The numbers at home for Boise State are
sensational even with inflated spreads and Tulsa’s defense will have serious
problems in this match-up, especially given the exhausting schedule. This
will be a steep spread but Tulsa has to be focused on getting healthy for the
conference season while Boise needs style points. BOISE STATE BY 35
Oregon (-14½) ARIZONA
Arizona was in a similar spot last week, hosting a powerful Stanford team as
underdogs. The Wildcats were right there at the half but could not get stops
in the second half as Stanford pulled away. Injuries have been a problem
early in the season for the Wildcats and after back-to-back losses to national
powerhouses, 1-3 with only a FCS win seems a likely result. Oregon lost the
opener against LSU and has breezed through the last two weeks with big
numbers. The Ducks have had problems in this match-up, failing to cover in
five of the last six meetings, including needing overtime to win in Tucson in
2009. QB Nick Foles has hit 75 percent with no interceptions but there has
not been enough help for the Wildcats. Oregon has a very dangerous team
but Arizona could be undervalued based on the stiff competition the last two
weeks and this is still a tough place to play. OREGON BY 14
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7:00 PM
7:00 PM
7:00 PM
9:15 PM
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LSU vs. West Virginia
Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M
USC vs. Arizona State
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ARIZONA STATE (-3) Usc
After two underwhelming victories USC delivered its first convincing win last
week, taking out Syracuse. The Trojans have not been the statistically
dominant team of year’s past but this is still a high quality team. This will be
the first road game for USC and the Trojans are just 5-12 ATS as road
favorites the past three years. Arizona State lost a tight game with Illinois last
week and it was a game that the yardage edge was firmly with the Sun
Devils. Arizona State is 0-3 ATS this season but they have covered in five of
the last six meetings with USC and this will be one of the biggest games of
the season for the Sun Devils. Last season Arizona State lost by a single-
point in an even statistical game and if the letdown after a close loss can be
avoided the Sun Devils will be a tough home team. ARIZONA STATE BY 7
AUBURN (-32½) Florida Atlantic
The Tigers finally got caught with a loss at Clemson last week. Bouncing
back will be made easier with a struggling Florida Atlantic team in town but
Auburn can’t afford to look past anyone given what happened in the opener.
Despite heavy personnel losses Auburn has still featured a big play offense
and through two games Florida Atlantic has scored just three points. The
Owls have had two weeks to prepare for this game so a slightly more
competitive effort than either of the first two games is possible. Auburn has
been questionable in the heavy favorite role but the quick strike offense could
pour on points in this game while Florida Atlantic should be more focused on
competing next week when the conference season starts. AUBURN BY 35
IOWA (-17) UL-Monroe
The Hawkeyes really had no business winning last week but somehow
avoided a 1-2 start with a miraculous finish to knock off Pittsburgh. Iowa is off
next week before the Big Ten opener but the team should bring great focus
into this game after all the mistakes last week. The Sun Belt gave Iowa a
great scare in 2009 as Arkansas State had the Hawkeyes on the ropes and
Monroe was competitive against TCU last week. The Warhawks have an
experienced offense and posted 19 first downs last week against the Frogs,
actually leading 17-14 after the first quarter. Iowa has not been able to run
the ball nor stop the run effectively which makes the Hawkeyes a risky team
to back as favorites. Louisiana-Monroe has next week off as well so there is
no reason to not go all out for a big upset shot. IOWA BY 10
TROY (-12½) Middle Tennessee State
These have been two of the best teams in the Sun Belt the last two seasons
but Troy has had the number of the Blue Raiders, winning by large margins
the past four years. Troy won 42-13 as underdogs last year on the road and
the Trojans again look like the top team in the conference although Florida
International will have something to say about that. Troy is 0-2 right now but
they have posted good numbers on the road against Clemson and Arkansas,
two quality teams. The Trojans will be hungry for a win here and Troy has
been a strong performer as home favorites. Middle Tennessee State has had
two weeks to prepare for this game but this is an inexperienced team. The
Blue Raiders nearly took out Purdue in the opening game but did not hold up
defense against Georgia Tech in its last game. Troy has owned this series so
it is hard to consider the road underdog even if it may be a favorable
scheduling set-up for Middle Tennessee. TROY BY 17
Indiana (-7½) NORTH TEXAS
Indiana finally got in the win column last week but it took FCS South Carolina
State to do so and it was a relatively close game with a 38-21 final. The
Hoosiers have posted solid offensive numbers but the defense has been
lousy against marginal competition. North Texas has allowed 559 yards per
game but the schedule has been brutally tough, facing high powered
Houston and playing at Alabama the last two weeks. It will be an uphill
season for the Mean Green but they could find a way to score a few times in
this match-up. Indiana is facing its first true road game in this match-up with
a lot of inexperience in key spots and the transition looking like it may take
some time. North Texas is really tough to back and there is not enough value
in a lower than expected spread. INDIANA BY 10
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (-16½) Louisiana 6:00 PM
Wins over Louisville and Central Florida are huge for the Florida International
program but in reality winning games in the Sun Belt will be more important
for the stature of the program. The Panthers look like they have a team that
can win the Sun Belt title but they did slip up twice as favorites in conference
play last year. Mario Cristobal should be on the fast track to a higher profile
coaching gig after his great rise with this program but the upsets the past two
weeks have come with good fortune. The Panthers were out-gained soundly
in both games and FIU has allowed almost 350 yards per game despite
surrendering just 14 points per game. On offense the rushing game has been
minimal and Louisiana may be a threat, scoring almost 31 points per game
so far this season. Beating Kent State and Nicholls State is nothing to write
home about but the Cajuns also scored 34 points at Oklahoma State in the
opener. This could be a dangerous game for Florida International and they
are likely facing peak valuation at this point. FIU BY 10
9:15 PM
6:00 PM
11:00 AM
3:30 PM
6:00 PM
NFL KEY SELECTIONS
**********************************************************************
RATING 5 NY JETS (-3½) over Oakland
RATING 4 MIAMI (+3) over Cleveland
RATING 3 NEW ENGLAND (-9½) over Buffalo
RATING 2 JACKSONVILLE (+3½) over Carolina
RATING 1 MINNESOTA (+4) over Detroit
**********************************************************************
ALL TIMES ARE LISTED IN CENTRAL TIME AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Home teams listed in CAPS, all lines are obviously subject to change
SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 25, 2011
CINCINNATI (-1) San Francisco (40)
The Bengals fell to 1-1 last week but the offense had an encouraging game
led by rookies Andy Dalton and A.J. Green in a 2-point defeat on the road.
San Francisco appeared set to go 2-0 but ultimately lost in overtime. San
Francisco has been a horribly unproductive team in terms of yardage and
while the 1-1 start has offered some promise the 49ers still look like one of
the weaker teams in the NFL as they have been aided by big plays. The
Bengals have been solid defensively and could surprise. BENGALS BY 4
New England (-9½) BUFFALO (51½)
The Bills are a surprise at 2-0 but considering they played two AFC West
teams the expectations should still be grounded. Buffalo has a productive
offense but the defense allowed Jason Campbell to throw for over 300 yards
last week. Tom Brady and company looked unstoppable again last week
although the game with San Diego was close at times and the Patriots
benefited from turnovers. San Diego has the best statistical defense in the
NFL last season and Miami was not far behind so what New England has
done in two weeks is very impressive. Look for the hot start for the Bills to
end even as a tempting big underdog. PATRIOTS BY 17
NEW ORLEANS (-4) Houston (53)
Houston has looked the part of a playoff contender through two weeks but
this will be a much tougher test. This is a second straight road game for the
Texans and the offense was slowed down a bit last week and RB Arian
Foster did not last long before a setback with his hamstring injury. The Saints
took down an emotional Bears team last week and New Orleans still looks
like one of the top offensive teams in the NFL. Houston may have more
playmakers on defense however and will be a threat as underdogs. This is
the game where we see if Houston is for real. TEXANS BY 3
PHILADELPHIA (NL) NY Giants
The Giants have lost six a row against the Eagles but they may catch a break
with Michael Vick banged up last week. New York faces a short week and
the Monday night result will be critical to considering this game as a 0-2 start
could be devastating for a squad that is banged up. The Eagles were
impressive on defense last week despite the loss and the offensive line has
made great improvement. This game is a very tough call given the unknowns
but Philadelphia may continue its series success. If Vick does not play, value
will be with Philadelphia and Mike Kafka looked capable. EAGLES BY 10
CLEVELAND (-3) Miami (41)
The Dolphins are 0-2 and under some pressure but this is not a team to write
off just yet. Miami had to play New England in the opener and they hung with
the Patriots despite allowing big yardage. The Texans also look like a top tier
team at this point and the Dolphins held them in check but were burned by
turnovers. Cleveland has faced Cincinnati and a depleted Indianapolis team.
The Browns lost to the Bengals and were not overly impressive in its first win
last week. Cleveland has some positive things going but the Dolphins are the
superior defense and a desperate 0-2 team can deliver. DOLPHINS BY 7
TENNESSEE (-6½) Denver (41)
The Titans had a very slow start in the opening game and it cost them but
last week the Titans were sharp on defense and offense to deliver an upset
against an overvalued Baltimore team. The Titans are a team that could go
either way this season and this will be the type of game that Tennessee
needs to win. Denver barely held off Cincinnati last week to avoid 0-2 and the
Broncos are lacking a lot of key players with injuries. The Titans may be on
the wrong side of value in this game and off a big win they may be suspect
favorites against a team that has played two close games. TITANS BY 4
Detroit (-4) MINNESOTA (44½)
The Lions are among the league leaders in just about everything after back-
to-back wins and a lopsided victory over the Chiefs last week. Detroit caught
some breaks in the opener and caught a depleted Chiefs team that is simply
a mess so the 2-0 start still should leave some doubt. Minnesota is 0-2 but
the Vikings have had early leads against two quality teams before melting
down in the fourth quarter. All is not lost as the defense has played well and
Minnesota still owns an elite running game. At 0-2 Minnesota is in desperate
situation and the Lions are still a very risky proposition in road games even
with the impressive start to the year. VIKINGS BY 3
12:00 PM
12:00 PM
12:00 PM
12:00 PM
12:00 PM
12:00 PM
12:00 PM
CAROLINA (-3½) Jacksonville (41½)
Hype can be a dangerous thing as Carolina, 2-14 last year and 0-2 this
season is favored in this game. Cam Newton has posted back-to-back 400
yard passing games but he has had plenty of rookie mistakes as well.
Arizona is not a good defensive team and while the Packers were an elite
defense last year, the unit certainly looks suspect through two weeks in
2011. Jacksonville really struggled on offense last week but the Jets have an
elite defense and it was a tough road situation for the team. The Jaguars still
own an excellent running game and an underrated defense and rookie QB
Blaine Gabbert will be tough to prepare for. JAGUARS BY 3
SAN DIEGO (-14½) Kansas City (44½)
It seems foolish to rule a season hopeless after two games but the Chiefs are
close to being in that boat, blown out in back-to-back weeks and riddled with
injuries to key players on both sides of the ball. San Diego is hardly a
trustworthy favorite as turnovers and special teams have been a concern this
season already after well documented problems last year. The Chargers
posted big numbers last week but they were forced to play from behind and
four turnovers proved extremely costly. The Chargers won 31-0 when these
teams last met in San Diego and a similar result is not out of the question but
another mistake filled game is also a possibility. CHARGERS BY 13
NY Jets (-3½) OAKLAND (41½)
Before getting too excited about what the Raiders have done on offense this
season consider the opposition and consider the task at hand this week.
Oakland nearly made it to 2-0 and last week’s loss could linger. The Jets
struggled on offense last week but got enough big plays to produce a
lopsided result. New York is being considered an elite team but the Jets had
no business winning the opening game and this will be a tough cross country
travel situation. Oakland has been very unreliable in the home underdog role
however and the Raiders will face an uphill battle on offense. JETS BY 16
Baltimore (NL) ST. LOUIS
The Rams were a great story last season but the schedule this season is
incredibly difficult early in the year. Facing the Ravens after Baltimore
suffered a troubling loss and doing so on a short week after a critical Monday
night game is a big challenge. The Rams are also less than full strength with
several injuries in play and the Rams have not been a successful home
underdog in recent years. The letdown for the Ravens was understandable
but this is team that should respond well. RAVENS BY 14
TAMPA BAY (-1) Atlanta (45½)
Both of these NFC South contenders appeared on the verge of 0-2 starts
before late comebacks last week. The slow starts are troubling for the
Buccaneers but QB Josh Freeman has proven his mettle as comeback
leader. The Falcons caught a lot of breaks last week as they were mostly
outplayed against Philadelphia and despite the 13-3 mark last season the
Falcons have looked far from a Super Bowl contender. Tampa has struggled
at home but this is not a great spot for Atlanta. BUCS BY 4
Arizona (-3) SEATTLE (41)
Seattle is not just 0-2; the Seahawks have been woefully unimpressive at 0-
2. Tarvaris Jackson actually had an okay game last week but the Pittsburgh
defense offered few opportunities. Seattle is yet to play a home game so this
is a team that should not be completely written off just yet in a weak NFC
West. Arizona enters this game off a tough emotional loss and going to a
tough venue after long travel may be problematic. SEAHAWKS BY 3
Green Bay (-3½) CHICAGO (45½)
The Packers have looked like the much better team in recent seasons but
Chicago has always been a tough game. Each of the last six meetings has
been decided by seven points or less and with the Bears off a loss this will be
rd
a focused team. Even with a 3 string QB the Bears had a shot to tie the
Packers last season in the NFC Championship and Green Bay’s defense has
given up big yardage this season. The Packers were bailed out by turnovers
and mistakes as they were out-gained in Carolina last week and a second
straight road game against a rival will be a challenge. PACKERS BY 3
Pittsburgh (-10½) INDIANAPOLIS (38½)
This is not quite the game that NBC had in mind with Peyton Manning out
and the Colts struggling. Ben Roethlisberger was injured last week but he did
return to help the Steelers get a shutout win. This is a steep spread and the
Colts held up well on defense last week. Getting plays on offense will be a
big challenge for Indianapolis but laying double-digits on the road carries a
great risk and beating Seattle impresses no one. STEELERS BY 9
MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 2011
DALLAS (NL) Washington
This game was incredibly close to being 2-0 versus 0-2 as Washington is the
surprise leader in the NFC East and Dallas was extremely fortunate to rally
for a win last week. QB Tony Romo was banged up but came back to make
enough plays to win and resurrect the season. Washington needed a late
rally to win as well but the Redskins have been impressive on the ground and
Rex Grossman has new life as a legitimate NFL QB. Washington is no fluke
and they have had a lot of recent ATS success in this series. Dallas is likely
overvalued despite barely beating a bad team. COWBOYS BY 3
12:00 PM
3:05 PM
3:05 PM
3:05 PM
3:15 PM
3:15 PM
3:15 PM
7:25 PM
7:35 PM
Last Week’s College Stats
Match-Up
LSU
Mississippi State
Boise State
Toledo
Iowa State
Connecticut
West Virgnia
Maryland
Auburn
Clemson
Pittsburgh
Iowa
Akron
Cincinnati
Wyoming
Bowling Green
Eastern Michigan
Michigan
Penn State
Temple
Central Michigan
Western Michigan
Mississippi
Vanderbilt
Duke
Boston College
Kansas
Georgia Tech
Colorado State
Colorado
Wisconsin
Northern Illinois
Miami, OH
Minnesota
Tennessee
Florida
Michigan State
Notre Dame
Virginia
North Carolina
Texas
UCLA
Washington
Nebraska
Texas Tech
New Mexico
Northwestern
Army
Nevada
San Jose State
Tulane
UAB
Navy
South Carolina
Washington State
San Diego State
Louisville
Kentucky
Houston
Louisiana Tech
Marshall
Ohio
Idaho
Texas A&M
Buffalo
Ball State
Arizona State
Illinois
Kent State
Kansas State
Syracuse
USC
Oklahoma
Florida State
UTEP
New Mexico State
Ohio State
Miami, FL
Utah
BYU
Oklahoma State
Tulsa
MONSTER 9-1 WEEKEND FROM NELLY’S PHONE SERVICE
THU
FRI
SAT
SAT
SAT
Op.
1*
CS
1*
3*
LSU -3.5
Iowa State +4
Georgia Tech -15
Navy +15
Ohio -5.5
Nelly’s Picks are always available at www.nellysports.com or call the office at 1-800-336-3559
Line Final
-3.5
19
49
6
-20.5
40
60
15
45
24
-4
20
-1
37
56.5
31
59
24
-4
38
50.5
27
-3
31
56.5
14
-34
59
55.5
28
-9.5
27
62.5
3
-30.5
31
-7
14
46
10
53
14
-6.5
44
-3
7
47
30
50
20
-7
19
62.5
24
-15
66
51
14
-7
28
-15.5
49
65
7
43.5
23
-4
29
52
23
-9.5
33
52.5
13
-6
31
48
17
-10
28
-4
49
46.5
20
53
38
-18
51
-21
59
55
13
-6
14
54
21
-7
17
54
14
54
49
-12.5
10
59.5
21
-15
24
57
24
-4.5
42
41
24
-4
17
-6
35
67.5
34
48.5
7
-5.5
44
59.5
7
-36
37
51.5
25
-4.5
28
55.5
14
-2.5
17
46.5
0
-17.5
37
50
17
-17
38
-4
23
56.5
13
49.5
16
-2.5
10
46
6
-2.5
24
45
54
-4
10
-13.5
59
67
33
FD Rushing
21 38 148
13 34 52
32 38 145
21 30 98
12 34 101
20 42 112
27 31 92
29 35 188
19 38 237
32 50 238
20 37 137
27 33 76
17 34 129
20 45 164
18 34 129
28 33 77
12 46 207
24 50 376
18 36 92
13 30 74
20 29 147
22 33 87
13 32 85
19 49 281
26 26 81
17 25 81
19 42 151
24 50 604
16 25 67
23 34 145
34 47 268
11 25 63
17 21 80
18 47 236
23 21
-9
17 40 134
21 23 29
18 32 114
23 34 170
22 41 222
23 50 284
12 34 141
20 31 146
22 55 309
34 35 178
15 37 109
14 27 115
24 75 381
23 60 261
15 30 138
28 49 262
10 17 48
15 47 274
27 44 254
19 28 51
25 44 227
18 40 181
21 32 35
21 35 98
26 66 233
14 34 172
30 55 271
10 29 56
31 38 140
17 37 177
20 39 174
21 34 106
16 45 105
13 36 118
24 42 219
17 21 73
28 33 175
20 39 111
16 26 27
18 42 185
21 29 16
15 37 174
16 42 240
20 38 242
20 22 11
32 48 174
27 59 365
Passing
21 27 213
15 25 141
33 43 465
20 40 251
19 30 240
15 36 231
36 49 388
34 52 289
12 25 198
30 42 386
24 34 285
31 48 399
17 36 220
13 21 178
25 39 267
34 55 437
3
6
29
7
18
95
22 37 216
12 28 123
20 36 215
28 38 355
15 30 149
14 22 106
43 55 384
17 34 247
17 27 211
4
7
164
20 30 176
17 32 215
24 34 355
17 27 173
27 48 325
11 21 163
26 48 288
14 23 213
34 54 329
18 26 161
23 41 298
16 23 179
16 20 204
11 26 176
21 37 274
10 21 155
45 50 446
10 29 228
17 30 194
1
7
6
11 21 112
13 33 152
23 27 278
10 28 145
5
9
61
18 25 204
20 42 368
21 37 273
12 22 146
27 42 255
25 40 351
21 32 211
11 29 159
21 30 288
17 29 131
30 43 377
14 24 176
24 36 226
25 45 256
11 15 135
11 23
81
13 24 116
26 38 258
27 40 326
18 27 199
20 34 219
9
28 124
20 37 242
4
18
35
16 23 123
16 31 239
30 56 343
29 40 369
8
26 117
Last Week’s College Stats
TO
1
2
1
2
3
3
3
3
1
1
3
1
6
1
1
6
2
1
1
3
2
2
5
3
1
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
2
1
2
3
3
1
2
4
3
1
1
3
0
1
4
4
0
3
1
1
4
2
0
1
3
3
6
2
0
2
0
0
3
3
2
0
1
1
2
3
2
2
2
2
2
7
2
6
Match-Up
Hawaii
UNLV
Stanford
Arizona
UL-Monroe
TCU
Arkansas State
Virginia Tech
Central Florida
Florida Intl
North Texas
Alabama
Troy
Arkansas
Coastal Carolina
Georgia
SE Missouri State
Purdue
Missouri State
Oregon
S. Carolina State
Indiana
Presbyterian
California
South Alabama
NC State
Gardner-Webb
Wake Forest
Western Illinois
Missouri
Florida A&M
South Florida
Indiana State
Western Kentucky
Austin Peay
Memphis
Stephen F. Austin
Baylor
SE Louisiana
Southern Miss
Nicholls State
Louisiana
Northwestern St
SMU
North Dakota
Fresno State
Last Week’s College Stats
Match-Up
BEARS
SAINTS
CHIEFS
LIONS
JAGUARS
JETS
RAIDERS
BILLS
CARDINALS
REDSKINS
RAVENS
TITANS
SEAHAWKS
STEELERS
PACKERS
PANTHERS
BUCCANEERS
VIKINGS
BROWNS
COLTS
COWBOYS
49ERS
TEXANS
DOLPHINS
CHARGERS
PATRIOTS
BENGALS
BRONCOS
EAGLES
FALCONS
RAMS
GIANTS
Line Final
-17.5
20
59
40
-10
37
56.5
10
53
17
-28.5
38
53
7
-24
26
-7
10
50
17
58.5
0
-47
41
61.5
28
-23
38
0
-41.5
59
0
-27.5
59
7
-57
56
21
-16
38
12
-43
63
13
-28
35
5
-34
48
0
-32
69
17
-41.5
70
44
-14
16
6
-16.5
27
0
-30
48
6
-30
52
21
-22
38
7
-29
40
22
-28.5
27
Line
46.5
-5
45
-9
38.5
-9
41
-4
45
-4.5
-6
39
40
-14
-11
45
41
-1
-1.5
39
-3
41
-3
47.5
53.5
-6.5
40.5
-3
-2.5
50
Final
13
30
3
48
3
32
35
38
21
22
13
26
0
24
30
23
24
20
27
19
27
24
23
13
21
35
22
24
31
35
FD Rushing
16 16
6
22 42 186
24 39 242
19 23 51
19 26 82
23 45 207
15 31 64
22 40 135
19 40 119
17 30 111
11 32 68
25 33 347
22 20 84
26 40 151
7
27 63
23 47 194
9
41 87
33 53 393
17 55 185
25 43 416
19 38 161
29 58 257
3
26 20
27 52 285
18 33 104
19 37 95
5
25 22
29 43 149
1
31 24
30 54 428
10 29 39
39 47 268
16 33 209
17 36 128
23 28 123
18 33 113
10 26 85
25 30 266
19 33 51
29 53 335
14 41 96
12 41 142
7
29 49
26 26 114
17 39 216
13 35 84
FD Rushing
18 12 60
16 29 118
12 29 151
23 30 89
11 27 112
15 32 101
26 30 131
34 25 217
16 15 93
28 35 172
15 17 45
21 29 74
8
13 31
23 35 124
16 21 124
26 21 71
19 19 105
25 33 186
18 34 106
19 26 109
20 22 45
14 24 74
19 36 138
18 28 153
29 24 98
28 25 94
18 20 72
19 36 131
27 30 133
20 29 138
Passing
25 41 284
18 30 179
20 31 325
28 39 282
29 42 232
15 23 204
16 36 205
21 33 292
17 27 181
15 29 127
13 31 101
21 29 239
36 63 373
23 36 303
14 26
49
25 36 276
8
19
66
21 35 234
8
15 104
16 21 265
15 30 216
25 33 300
6
20
28
20 37 296
17 32 182
19 22 297
14 28 117
26 37 305
4
15
20
20 27 316
12 30 142
30 43 477
14 24 227
23 31 241
23 45 245
20 30 332
13 22 122
21 24 279
20 41 234
16 23 143
11 22 129
7
15 138
13 21
77
26 51 416
12 25 107
11 17 235
Passing
19 45 186
26 37 264
15 23 116
24 40 322
11 25 203
17 24 182
23 33 323
28 46 264
17 30 231
25 43 283
15 32 184
30 42 358
20 29 133
23 31 297
19 30 295
28 46 404
22 31 230
18 30 212
22 32 197
19 38 176
26 43 427
16 24 132
21 29 207
12 30 153
29 40 372
31 40 410
27 41 310
15 25 187
26 36 314
17 28 180
4th Quarter Covers:
LSU (-3.5) 19, Mississippi State 6
LSU was in control all game against
Mississippi State but three field
goals was all the Tigers could post
through three quarters, entering the
fourth just short of the spread. LSU
had the ball entering the fourth
quarter and finished of the drive with
the only touchdown of the game on a
19-yard pass play with less than
twelve minutes to go. LSU added a
field goal late and while Mississippi
State drove deep into LSU territory
on its final possession, a touchdown
would not have been enough for a
backdoor cover. Boise State (-20.5)
40, Toledo 15 The Broncos took a
little time to get going at Toledo
Friday night as it was just an eleven
point lead at the half. Boise State led
by just 18 points entering the fourth
quarter, sitting just short of the
closing numbers. Boise State was
stopped on several second half
possessions but finally found the end
zone again with less than six
minutes to go, surpassing the spread
for the first time. Toledo quickly
answered however to create a
dramatic finish relative to the spread
but Boise State bailed out Broncos
backers with another touchdown with
just 1:30 left on the clock for a
narrow cover. Iowa (-3) 31,
Pittsburgh 27 Pittsburgh appeared
to be well on its way for a notable
road win, leading Iowa 24-10
entering the fourth quarter and
tacking on a field goal early in the
final frame. Iowa’s offense finally
started to put things together with an
efficient scoring drive to cut the
deficit to just ten points. Pittsburgh
moved the ball well on its next
possession but opted to go for it on
4th and 3 at the Iowa 36 about
halfway through the final quarter.
The attempt failed and Iowa got the
ball back and some momentum
behind its home crowd. Iowa quickly
went down the field to add another
touchdown in less than two minutes
and then forced a Pittsburgh 3 and
out aided by a big second down
sack. Iowa’s offense did it again with
a quick drive down the field,
stunningly taking the lead with less
than three minutes to go and getting
just past the spread, something that
looked impossible much of the
game. Pittsburgh had a chance to
answer and got two first downs but
an interception ended the threat and
Iowa was able to run out the clock.
Minnesota (-4) 29, Miami, OH 23
The Gophers have had a very
emotional start to the season but
there certainly was fear of a 0-3 start
for much of this game. Miami
appeared on the verge of the lead
late in the third quarter but they
missed an extra-point, leaving a 16-
16 tie entering the fourth quarter but
Minnesota completed its drive with a
touchdown early in the final quarter.
The Gophers then got the big break
it needed with a blocked punt on
Miami’s next possession, leading
directly to a touchdown. Minnesota
then missed an extra-point, leaving a
13-point margin. Miami answered on
the next possession to cut the lead
back to six and leaving a nervous
finish for Minnesota fans. Minnesota
burned some clock but ultimately
had to go for it on fourth down in
Miami territory but out of field goal
range. The Gophers could not
convert and Miami would take the
ball inside the Minnesota 20-yard
line, needing a touchdown and the
extra-point for the upset but
Minnesota got the stop it needed to
seal Coach Kill’s first win and a
narrow cover. Nebraska (-18) 51,
Washington 38 The Cornhuskers
led by just three at halftime but then
dominated the third quarter, taking a
20-point lead … Get the rest:
TO
4
1
0
0
1
2
2
2
2
0
0
2
1
3
3
1
1
1
0
0
1
1
2
1
3
3
0
1
1
2
2
3
1
4
3
1
2
1
3
1
3
2
1
3
0
0
TO
1
1
6
1
4
2
2
1
2
2
3
1
0
0
1
4
1
1
1
2
2
1
0
2
4
0
0
2
3
2
WINNER 19-6
WINNER 24-20
WINNER 66-24
WINNER 21-24
WINNER 44-7
SAT
SAT
SUN
SUN
SUN
1* Illinois -2.5
2* Arizona +10
2* Titans +6
2* Buccaneers +1
2* Falcons +2.5
WINNER 17-14
Loss 10-37
WINNER 26-13
WINNER 24-20
WINNER 35-31
PLAY this Week
$60 Flat Fee
All Picks Thu-Mon
‘OVER’/’UNDER’s OF THE WEEK
NCAA: ‘UNDER’ Tulsa at Boise State
With Tulsa likely without its starting QB and facing a very difficult
situation after the late night game last week and a third tough road
game in four weeks, scoring could be down. Only 49 points were
scored the last time these teams met and the Golden Hurricane will
need to run the ball successfully to have any chance. Boise State is
dominant at home but the offense took some time to get going last
week and the true strength of the home field edge comes on defense.
Boise State allowed just 13 points per game at home last season and
this total will be inflated based on the scoring potential.
BONUS TOTAL: ‘OVER’ Notre Dame at Pittsburgh
NFL: ‘OVER’ New England at Buffalo
This has historically been an ‘under’ series but the Patriots scored 72
points in two games last season against Buffalo. The Bills have shown
a great ability to pass this season and this is a team that will continue
to air it out and score even if they fall behind early. Buffalo’s defense
has displayed some problems in the 2-0 start and the Patriots have
also given big yardage making scoring on both sides very likely in this
match-up. The ‘over’ has hit easily in all four games involving these
teams this season and although this is a high total and intensity will be
up for a division match-up, both QBs will have time to throw.
BONUS TOTAL: ‘UNDER’ NY Jets at Oakland
NCAA SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
Early Losing Streak Favorites:
PLAY AGAINST: Any game 4 NCAA favorite of 14 or more
coming off back-to-back S/U losses
21-10, 67.7% since 1986
PLAY AGAINST: Mississippi State
PLAY ON: Louisiana Tech
NFL SYSTEM OF THE WEEK
Suspect Heavy Chalk
PLAY AGAINST: Any NFL favorite of 14 or more that
lost S/U in its previous game
38-20-2, 65.5% since 1985
PLAY AGAINST: San Diego Chargers
PLAY ON: Kansas City
Tighten It: If the opponent has lost back-to-back games
23-10-1, 69.7% since 1985
Applies to: San Diego
PLAY ON: Kansas City
2011 NCAA SEASON TRENDS
2011 NCAA ATS Trends through September 17
Home teams are 105-93-1 (33-29 last week)
Favorites are 106-100-1 (36-28 last week)
Double-Digit Favorites are 75-65 (21-15 last week)
Favorites of 20 or more are 43-44 (12-10 last week)
Favorites of 30 or more are 24-19 (7-4 last week)
Home Favorites are 84-75 (26-21 last week)
Road Favorites are 18-21-1 (8-7 last week)
2011 NFL SEASON TRENDS
2011 NFL ATS Trends through September 18
Home teams are 15-12-2 (8-6-1 last week)
Favorites are 12-15-2 (7-7-1 last week)
Home Favorites are 9-9-1 (5-4 last week)
Road Favorites are 3-6-1 (2-3-1 last week)
Over/Unders are 19/9/1 (9/5/1 last week)
HISTORICALLY SPEAKING
Some pointspreads have been estimated and may not be accurate by game time
DD=double-digit, R=road, H=home, F=favorite, D=dog, L=last, S/U=straight-up
NCAA TRENDS: (*Previous Monday results are not applied to these trends)
NC State is 51-27-1 as underdogs since ’97 – Cincinnati is 5-8 in the last 12 as home favorites
Central Florida is 12-2 in the last 14 road games – BYU is 5-11 in the last 16 home games
Colorado is 17-28-1 as underdogs since ’05 – Ohio State is 13-3 as home favorites since ‘09
Tulane is 5-10 the last 15 road games – Duke is 3-10-1 the last 14 as home favorites
Toledo is 13-23 on the road since ’05 – Syracuse is 28-12 as home favorites since ‘99
UAB is 14-20 on the road since ’06 – East Carolina is 27-14 at home since ‘04
UTEP is 15-9 in the last 24 as double-digit dogs – South Florida is 6-8 as home favs since ‘08
W. Michigan is 11-21-1 as double-digit dogs since ’01 – Illinois is 24-37-2 as H/F since ‘90
Ohio is 21-11-1 on the road since ’06 – Rutgers is 5-10 in the last 15 as home favorites
Eastern Michigan is 16-27 as 20+ dogs since ’98 – Penn State is 4-12 at home since ‘09
Kansas State is 9-3 as road underdogs since ’07 – Miami, FL is 17-33 as home favs since ‘02
SMU is 22-31-2 in road games since ’02 – Memphis is 11-21 as underdogs since ‘08
Temple is 18-7 as underdogs since ’07 – Maryland is 6-15 as home favorites since ‘04
Central Michigan is 23-16-2 as dogs since ’04 – Michigan State is 19-30-1 as H/F since ‘01
Georgia is 5-9 the last 14 as road favorites – Mississippi is 17-12-1 in the last 30 at home
Bowling Green is 21-7 in road games since ’07 – Miami, OH is 10-15 the last 25 home games
Army is 18-25-1 as underdogs since ’06 – Ball State is 0-7 as home favorites since ‘09
Virginia Tech is 18-5 as road favorites since ’04- Marshall is 12-5 as home dogs since ‘00
Arkansas is 11-4-1 in the last 16 as underdogs – Alabama is 67-92 as home favorites since ‘81
California is 9-19 on the road since ’06 – Washington is 28-44-2 at home since ‘00
LSU is 39-24-2 as road favorites since ’83 – West Virginia is 18-9 as underdogs since ‘02
San Diego State is 7-3 the last ten as dogs – Michigan is 13-25-2 as home favorites since ‘04
North Carolina is 44-35 on the road since ’96 – Georgia Tech is 14-20-2 at home since ‘05
Florida is 10-2 in the last 12 as road favorites – Kentucky is 6-3 in home games since ‘10
Notre Dame is 30-21-1 on the road since ’00 – Pittsburgh is 9-16 the last 25 at home
Florida State is 1-8 at Clemson since ’92 – Clemson is 22-12 as home underdogs since ‘80
New Mexico State is 7-3 in the last 10 on road – San Jose State is 4-11 the last 15 at home
Fresno State is 20-27-1 as road favs since ’92 – Idaho is 6-10 the last 16 as road underdogs
Connecticut is 34-28 on the road since ’00 – Buffalo is 3-8 as underdogs since ‘10
UCLA is 7-1 vs. Oregon State since ’01 – Oregon State is 19-6-1 the last 26 as underdogs
Nevada is 17-28 as double-digit dogs since ’00 – Texas Tech is 55-36-2 as H/F since ‘86
Vanderbilt is 4-9-1 the last 15 as DD dogs – South Carolina is 12-6-1 vs. Vandy since ‘92
Louisiana Tech is 13-26-1 as DD dogs since ’02 – Mississippi State is 2-10 as H/F since ‘05
Rice is 0-5 S/U & ATS vs. Baylor since ’03 – Baylor is 18-8 as favorites since ‘99
Southern Miss is 20-31-1 as dogs since ’97 – Virginia is 19-11 as home favorites since ‘03
Oklahoma State is 13-5 the last 18 road games – Texas A&M is 14-5 the last 19 at home
Nebraska is 2-15 the last 17 as double-digit favs – Wyoming is 3-7-1 the last 11 as home dogs
Missouri is 10-15 vs. Oklahoma since ’80 – Oklahoma is 21-8-1 as home favorites since ‘06
Colorado State is 0-10 as road favorites since ’03 – Utah State is 10-6 the last 16 at home
Tulsa is 17-29-2 as DD dogs since ’96 – Boise State is 24-14-1 as DD favorites since ‘07
Oregon is 1-5 vs. Arizona since ’05 – Arizona is 8-2-1 as home underdogs since ‘05
USC is 5-11 in the last 16 road games – Arizona State is 42-27-1 as home favorites since ‘87
Florida Atlantic is 6-18-1 as DD dogs since ’05 – Auburn is 7-18 as DD favorites since ‘06
UL-Monroe is 39-50-1 as double-digit dogs since ’95 – Iowa is 11-16 as home favs since ‘06
Middle Tenn. State is 0-5 S/U & ATS vs. Troy since ’06 – Troy is 17-11 as home favs since ‘04
Indiana is 21-38-3 on the road since ’99 – North Texas is 5-10 as home underdogs since ‘08
Louisiana is 11-2 in the last 13 road games – Florida International is 5-7 at home since ‘09
NFL TRENDS:
San Francisco is 2-10 the last 12 as road favorites – Cincinnati is 12-3 the last 15 as dogs
New England is 28-13-1 as road favs since ’04 – Buffalo is 7-14-1 vs. New England since ‘00
Houston is 9-5 the last 14 as road dogs – New Orleans is 37-57-2 as home favs since ‘93
NY Giants are 0-6 S/U & ATS L6 vs. Philadelphia – Philadelphia is 5-8 the L 13 home games
Miami is 12-5 the last 17 games as dogs – Cleveland is 2-7 the last nine home games
Denver is 16-23 on the road since ’06 – Tennessee is 15-21-1 as home favorites since ‘04
Detroit is 57-76-8 on the road since ’94 – Minnesota is 8-5 the last 13 home games
Jacksonville is 7-13 in the last 20 road games – Carolina is 18-23-1 at home since ‘06
Kansas City is 12-19 at San Diego since ’80 – San Diego is 17-23-1 as favorites since ‘08
NY Jets are 5-1 the last 6 as road favorites – Oakland is 13-23 as home dogs since ‘04
Baltimore is 7-12 as road favorites since ’05 – St. Louis is 10-17 as home dogs since ‘07
Atlanta is 11-6 as road favorites since ’04 – Tampa Bay is 4-15 the last 19 home games
Arizona is 6-3 the last nine vs. Seattle – Seattle is 33-16-4 at home since ‘05
Green Bay is 21-13-1 vs. Chicago since ’94 – Chicago is 31-17 at home dogs since ‘98
Pittsburgh is 10-17 as road favorites since ’06 – Indianapolis is 15-8 the last 23 as home dogs
Washington is 9-3 the last 12 vs. Dallas – Dallas is 1-5 the last six as home favorites
All trends are Against the Spread unless noted:
TRENDS OF THE WEEK
NCAA: Boise State is 40-19-2 as home favorites since 1999
NFL: Miami Dolphins are 11-3 the last 14 road games