San Diego Chargers vs. New Orleans Saints Preview
NFL Football Point Spread: Saints -3.5 O/U 54
Sunday, October 7 2012 8:20 PM EST NBC
By: Mike Rosen of Unit Betting System CALL NOW for a week of Free Football Picks Using my proven sports betting system.
To say the Saints have gotten off to a bad start is an understatement, as they are 0-4 and after going undefeated at home last season they have dropped 2 straight in their house. The Chargers (3-1) got over their embarrassing home loss to the Falcons where they only scored 3 points with a win last week where they were solid on both sides of the ball. Yeah, it is still pretty early in the season, but this game is very important for the Saints, as if they go 0-5 it is very unlikely that they will make it back to the playoffs.
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In their last games the Chargers beat the Kansas City Chiefs 37-20 while the Saints lost to the Green Bay Packers 28-27.
On the season the Chargers are 3-1 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 2-2 and the Saints are 1-3 ATS and they have an Over/Under record of 3-1.
Drew Brees has been pretty good this season leading the Saints and their 3rd ranked passing attack, but he is not getting any help from the rushing offense or defense. He has a great WR corps and TE Jimmy Graham, but he has to avoid the INT. He has 10 TD on the season, but also has 5 INT. The Chargers rank 17th in the league defending the pass and if they can keep Brees from having a big game they should win.
The Saints only rank 26th in the league in rushing offense and leading rusher Pierre Thomas only has 152 yards through 4 games and Mark Ingram has yet to surpass 100 rushing yards and is only averaging 2.8 yards per carry. Also, this duo has only combined for 1 TD on the season. The Chargers’ run defense ranks 6th in the league and they held Kansas City’s Jamaal Charles to 92 rushing yards after he had 233 yards in his previous game.
While Chargers’ QB Phillip Rivers is not putting up big numbers he is playing well, but still has 4 INT and only 6 TD. Malcolm Floyd is his leading WR and is averaging 16.7 yards per catch and TE Antonio Gates is expected back in this game after missing the last one with an injury. The Saints pass defense only ranks 24th in the league.
The Saints have been killed on the ground this season, as their rushing defense ranks dead last in the league. After coming back from an injury Ryan Mathews has not had a big workload in the last 2 games, but he has averaged 4.4 yards per carry and he may improve on that in this game in the Big Easy.
Chargers vs. Saints Key Betting Trends
The Chargers have covered the spread in 4 of their last 5 road games and in their last 5 games facing a team with a losing record the posted total has gone Over 4 times.
The Saints have covered the spread in 9 of their last 11 home games, but have failed to cover both times at home this season. In their last 9 games overall the posted total has gone Over 8 times.